Smart Phone predictions for the future
Within 5 years, smartphones will represent roughly 50% of mobile device shipments, 75% of the device market revenues, and up to as much as 90% of industry gross margin potential. In 7-10 years most users will have a smartphone and we will have to find a new word to describe high end models!
Will 2010 be the year when the smartphones” evolved into the mid tier? Are they heading for much larger quantities than the top segment where all smartphone vendors so far have targeted their development? The key is to find the cost effective mix of hardware and software close to what the upper segment offers in terms of user experience and design.
Software is emerging as the lynchpin in this battle for dominance. Choosing between developing internal operating systems with high costs or selling phones that look and behave the same as any other on the market is a key headache for all device manufacturers. Differentiation is the key to being recognized in the market. On the horizon there are a new generation mobile phones that will have 5GHz processors, 10GB-20GB of memory, and work smoothly and seamlessly when moving from one network to another, whether the network uses cellular, mobile WiMAX or other technologies.
In other words “a handsome mobile phone/computer with great performance made for the pocket”.
Gartner’s prediction for 2012 (based on sales of 525 M smartphones) puts Android phones as the winner of this race based on Google’s strong brand and services, openness and a big number of existing and new suppliers that has joined this strategic approach for the future.
Clearly, there are many strong suppliers ready to fight hard to get a good position in this space.
Apple is still the leader in terms of developing the concept but Nokia has taken some aggressive moves as it launches its fight back to reclaim its position in this segment. A multi OS strategy with Symbian, Maemo and Windows at the same time as they have introduced a multi mobile platform strategy. Infineon for GSM. Broadcom for EDGE, and STMicro (now ST-Ericsson) & Intel for HSPA. Last year, it extended Broadcom‘s remit to HSPA too, and introduced first Qualcomm and then Intel to its supply chain.
For companies like Motorola and SEMC, now seems to be the time to rebuild in smartphones. Both have suffered a lot in the last couple of years, being too heavy in the mid tier and not good enough in the high and the ultra low segment. However, with recent product announcements they appear to be unlocking the winning formula for smartphones and also to have new smart phones for the mid tier where they had a lot of faithful users in the past.
Samsung, LG, RIM, HTC, Acer and many more, the list is getting longer every day, will all compete for market share in this segment. Hence, 2010 will be the year when the market will be flooded with new models that together with excellent application and entertainment stores will offer thrilling new experiences. So next year should see the industry take the next step towards the “handsome mobile phone/computer with great performance designed to pass the pocket test”.